Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.829474 21.585474 23.528712 25.859453 28.607629 31.782357 35.784293
2024-10-20 16.964421 19.211732 21.879819 25.351854 29.865349 35.715639 44.218286
2024-10-27 15.699240 18.369796 21.735760 26.450731 33.188505 43.054940 60.044491
2024-11-03 14.300891 17.107611 20.794616 26.242996 34.619175 48.205117 75.672668
2024-11-10 13.317000 16.226463 20.184750 26.315774 36.401256 54.513878 98.401667
2024-11-17 12.563000 15.549372 19.737232 26.502325 38.358908 61.953984 132.491457
2024-11-24 11.924426 14.954831 19.315637 26.625010 40.202178 70.099411 184.176120
2024-12-01 11.286051 14.295800 18.713122 26.334106 41.174278 76.855281 252.323395
2024-12-08 10.803519 13.818595 18.330815 26.345808 42.742357 86.229615 390.541799
2024-12-15 10.326756 13.310899 17.846738 26.096848 43.687752 94.632931 636.717000
2024-12-22 9.896717 12.842150 17.380353 25.810373 44.477969 103.367504 1230.530679
2024-12-29 9.524394 12.436296 16.980375 25.592318 45.381905 113.622806 4100.774704
2025-01-05 9.187189 12.069621 16.624688 25.432761 46.459150 126.425775 NaN
2025-01-12 8.802881 11.609093 16.078945 24.833532 46.256909 133.434102 NaN
2025-01-19 8.714636 11.607422 16.311458 25.843375 50.812808 175.493369 NaN
2025-01-26 8.440486 11.293488 15.977286 25.620969 51.734769 197.542251 NaN
2025-02-02 8.229110 11.069407 15.784973 25.680608 53.585814 234.650733 NaN
2025-02-09 8.049114 10.886608 15.652439 25.854932 55.912925 290.095157 NaN
2025-02-16 7.873358 10.701668 15.502432 25.970470 58.121809 364.056802 NaN
2025-02-23 7.657972 10.441335 15.197397 25.690531 58.809486 424.486835 NaN
2025-03-02 7.492788 10.257534 15.023076 25.701329 60.667183 546.725619 NaN
2025-03-09 7.307238 10.031905 14.757185 25.462325 61.464817 669.934291 NaN
2025-03-16 7.128155 9.810470 14.487479 25.187367 62.052534 826.599342 NaN